Full Deck — Overview

Interpreted IC narrative from the IM: what to buy, why now, and what can break
Not a translation page. This is the underwriting thesis layer.
Overview Market & Strategy Operations Financials Deal & Risks
¥696.4M
FY2023 Revenue
¥267.1M
Adj. EBITDA
38.4%
EBITDA Margin
¥247.9M
Net Cash
4.7x
Entry EV/EBITDA

Investment Thesis

Primary Bet

KOYO is a service-backed accessibility platform with a credible domestic earnings base in Japan. The core value is the installed base-to-maintenance flywheel, supported by technical execution and long-standing supplier access. This is not a pure distribution arbitrage.

What We Underwrite

  • Domestic earnings durability via maintenance contracts
  • Operational continuity through controlled founder transition
  • Selective expansion into TW/HK only when operating access is secured

What We Do Not Underwrite

  • Immediate overseas multiple expansion without DD gates
  • Channel-only targets as acquisition candidates
  • Unverified normalization adjustments

IC Framing

QuestionAnswerDecision Implication
Is the base case investable without overseas success?Yes, based on domestic cash generation and net-cash cushion.Proceed if QoE confirms repeatability.
Where does upside come from?Maintenance mix migration + disciplined TW/HK market entry.Price upside as staged options.
What is the biggest avoidable error?Paying for narrative expansion before operating-access evidence.Use explicit gate criteria before capital deployment.
Provenance: the source layers remain at 01 Translation, 02 Logic, 03 VC Explain, and Traceability. This full deck is the interpreted decision layer.