KOYO — Standalone Case & Value Creation

3-Year Operating Scenario (¥K)

Metric	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
Total Revenue	759,858	933,628	1,212,924
Operating Profit	126,536	190,449	317,296
Adjusted EBITDA	197,625	261,538	388,385
D2C Revenue	30,000	80,000	150,000
TW Revenue	0	50,000	150,000
HK Revenue	0	20,000	60,000

Sensitivity: What Drives Returns

Case	Year-3 EBITDA	Exit Multiple	MOIC	IRR (3yr)
Base (No expansion)	310,000	5.0x	1.9x	23.2%
Conservative (TW only)	337,000	6.0x	2.3x	32.2%
Mid (TW + HK)	382,000	6.0x	3.0x	43.6%
Bull (Full platform)	447,500	7.0x	4.2x	61.9%
Bear (Failed expansion)	292,000	4.0x	1.2x	5.7%

Reading: downside case still preserves capital better than typical levered small-cap profiles; upside comes from execution quality, not spreadsheet optimism.

Value Creation Program

Growth Levers

D2C lead engine for home accessibility demand
Municipal / institutional demand capture programs
TW acquisition and HK entry via operating-access pathways
Renewal conversion from aging installed base

Margin Levers

Maintenance digitization and route optimization
Procurement consolidation and supplier term discipline
Contract price update framework tied to service inflation
Subcontractor standardization for lower rework and SLA breaches

IC Decision Rule

Approve only if: (1) rights lock is contractually secured, (2) leadership transition plan is executable in 90 days, and (3) overseas upside is priced as options with hard stage gates.